🔗 Share this article Will the Scottish team at last break the New Zealand curse? The All Blacks have made several modifications to the team that defeated Ireland International Rugby Series: Scotland v New Zealand Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital Date: this weekend Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland. After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test. The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain." Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent. A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest. Recent History Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent. In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses. Squad Updates In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail. Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done. We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history. Key Absences Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback. Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern. During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations. Replacement Concerns Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years. Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class. Strategic Decisions The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach. The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable. Past Encounters Graham crossed the line in the 31-23 defeat to New Zealand in 2022 Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick. That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing. Statistical Analysis Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and 60 in the second half. They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps. Required Performance Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily. The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity. In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand. Conclusion Everything has to go right for Scotland. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost. But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham. Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.